On Identifying the Core of EMU: An Exploration of Some Empirical Criteria

Michael John Artis and Wenda Zhang

No 1689, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The paper reports strikingly high correlations of the cyclical components of industrial production between the participant countries in the ERM. Supplementing these correlations with criteria based on real exchange rate volatility, trade and monetary policy conformity, cluster analysis is used to identify a core group of countries for which monetary union with Germany seems less controversial and to define other groups for which monetary union might be less advisable.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Cluster Analysis; ERM; Real Exchange Rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 E32 F15 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997-08
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