The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

Jaroslava Hlouskova and Martin Wagner

No 3318, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. It is shown that the neoclassical growth model does not yet adequately describe the growth process in these countries. This makes a direct growth accounting exercise to assess these countries' growth prospects infeasible. Therefore an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close or narrow the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analysed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects of these measures on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

Keywords: EU accession; growth and convergence; transition economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F02 F43 O11 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-eec and nep-geo
Date: 2002-04
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP3318.asp (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects (2001)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3318

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP3318.asp

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
Address: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 53--56 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DG
Series data maintained by ().