How to Exit from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes
Ahmet Asici (),
Nadezhda Ivanova and
Charles Wyplosz ()
No 5141, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
This paper improves upon the recently developed literature on exits from fixed exchange rate regimes in three ways: 1) It allows for two indicators for post-exit macroeconomic conditions, the change in the exchange rate and the change in the output gap; 2) it tests whether the distinction between orderly and disorderly exit is statistically justified, and concludes that it is not; 3) it deals with the sample selection problem. The results, subject to extensive sensitivity analysis, suggest that post-exits are better when de-pegging occur in good macroeconomic conditions – an unnatural move for most policy-makers – when world interest rates decline and in the presence of capital controls. Importantly, ‘good’ macroeconomic policies do not seem to help with post-exit performance.
Keywords: exchange rate regimes; macroeconomic policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C34 F30 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-mon
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Journal Article: How to exit from fixed exchange rate regimes? (2008)
Working Paper: How to Exit From Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes? (2005)
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