This paper improves upon the recently developed literature on exits from fixed exchange rate regimes in three ways: 1) It allows for two indicators for post-exit macroeconomic conditions, the change in the exchange rate and the change in the output gap; 2) it tests whether the distinction between orderly and disorderly exit is statistically justified, and concludes that it is not; 3) it deals with the sample selection problem. The results, subject to extensive sensitivity analysis, suggest that post-exits are better when de-pegging occur in good macroeconomic conditions – an unnatural move for most policy-makers – when world interest rates decline and in the presence of capital controls. Importantly, ‘good’ macroeconomic policies do not seem to help with post-exit performance.
Downloads: (external link) http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5141.asp (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org