The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads

Maurice Obstfeld

No 5771, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: In the face of huge balance of payments surpluses and internal inflationary pressures, China has been in a classic conflict between internal and external balance under its dollar currency peg. Over the longer term, China’s large, modernizing, and diverse economy will need exchange rate flexibility and, eventually, convertibility with open capital markets. A feasible and attractive exit strategy from the essentially fixed RMB exchange rate would be a two-stage approach, consistent with the steps already taken since July 2005, but going beyond them. First, establish a limited trading band for the RMB relative to a basket of major trading partner currencies. Set the band so that it allows some initial revaluation of the RMB against the dollar, manage the basket rate within the band if necessary, and widen the band over time as domestic foreign exchange markets develop. Second, put on hold ad hoc measures of financial account liberalization. They will be less helpful for relieving exchange rate pressures once the RMB/basket rate is allowed to move flexibly within a band, and they are best postponed until domestic foreign exchange markets develop further, the exchange rate is fully flexible, and the domestic financial system has been strengthened and placed on a market-oriented basis.

Keywords: China balance of payments; China currency; fixed exchange rate exit strategy; renminbi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cna, nep-dev, nep-ifn, nep-mon, nep-sea and nep-tra
Date: 2006-08
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Working Paper: The Renminbifs Dollar Peg at the Crossroads (2007)
Working Paper: The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads (2006)
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