Why so Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market

Robert P Flood and Andrew Rose ()

No 6714, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper applies the Meese-Rogoff (1983a) methodology to the stock market. We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various time-series and fundamentals-based models of aggregate stock prices. We stick as close as possible to the original Meese-Rogoff sample and methodology. Just as Meese and Rogoff found for the case of exchange rates, we find that a random walk model of stock prices performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons, even though we base forecasts on actual future fundamentals of dividends and earnings. Using this metric and for this sample period, aggregate stock prices seem to be as difficult to model empirically as exchange rates.

Keywords: aggregate; dividend; earning; exchange; forecast; fundamental; growth; model; rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F37 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-for
Date: 2008-02
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