The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence

Timothy Besley () and Torsten Persson ()

No 7101, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time. We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict. Our most novel empirical finding is that higher world market prices of exported, as well as imported, commodities are strong and significant predictors of higher within-country incidence of civil war.

Keywords: commodity prices; conflict; natural resources; political institutions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 F52 O11 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev and nep-his
Date: 2008-12
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence (2008)
Working Paper: The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence (2009)
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