The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

Charlotte Christiansen, Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Soderlind ()

No 7345, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper suggests a factor model for carry trade strategies where the regression coefficients are allowed to depend on market volatility and liquidity. Empirical results on daily data from 1995 to 2008 show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and also more mean reversion in volatile periods - and that FX market volatility is a priced risk factor. The findings are robust to various extensions, including using more currencies and other proxies for volatility and liquidity (VIX, TED and a bid-ask spread).

Keywords: carry trade; factor model; smooth transition regression; time-varying betas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G11 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-06
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies (2009)
Working Paper: The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies (2009)
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