No News in Business Cycles

Mario Forni (), Luca Gambetti () and Luca Sala ()

No 8274, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations is explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Keywords: fundamentalness; invertibility; news shocks; structural factor model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-02
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Related works:
Working Paper: No News in Business Cycles (2011)
Working Paper: No News in Business Cycles (2011)
Working Paper: No News in Business Cycles (2011)
Working Paper: No news in business cycles (2011)
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