International Trade over the Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Remaining Puzzles

Christian Zimmermann ()

No 37, Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers from CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal

Abstract: Using quarterly national accounts for 19 industrialized economies, the business cycle behavior of trade related aggregates and prices is assessed. Emphasis is put on the distinction between small, relatively open, and large, relatively closed, economies. Comparing those facts with the computational experiments of international real business cycle models, several puzzles are studied or uncovered. Finally, we determine which fatcs are crucial for international business cycle models, that is, in which direction current research should pursue.

Nous étudions, pour 19 pays industrialisés, le comportement cyclique d'agrégats et de prix trimestriels liés au commerce international. La distinction entre les petits pays, plus ouverts, et les grands pays, relativement fermés au commerce extérieur, est mise en évidence. En comparant ces faits stylisés avec les prédictions de modèles internationaux du cycle réel, nous analysons plusieurs énigmes, dont certaines sont nouvelles. Finalement, nous déterminons quels faits stylisés sont cruciaux pour un modèle international du cycle, donc dans quelle direction la recherche doit s'orienter.

Keywords: open economy macroeconomics; international trade; business cycles; small countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-03
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