Evaluation of the Diachronic Performance of the OECD Macroeconomic Forecasts for Greece

Dikaios Tserkezos ()
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Dikaios Tserkezos: Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece

No 902, Working Papers from University of Crete, Department of Economics

Abstract: A variety of standard forecasting accuracy criteria and one suggestion are applied to evaluate the OECD's macroeconomic forecasts for Greece for the aggregate demand and output, the GDP implicit price deflator, the investment, the imports and the exports of goods and services. Every year and half-year the OECD provides projections for these variables published in the OECD Economic Outlook. Because these projections are used extensively by governmental and nongovernmental organizations, it is useful to examine their accuracy. Among some ¡traditional¢ forecasting performance criteria another forecasting criterion is suggested in order to take into account the diachronic adjustment process between the forecasts supplied by OECD and the actual data the last 27 years. According to our results, irrespective of how accurate are the OECD¢s forecasts, there is certainly much room for further improvement. As predictors of direction the OECD's six-month ahead forecasts should be considered valuable; this cannot be said for forecasts which look ahead a year and 18 months.

Keywords: OECD Forecasts Accuracy; Greek Economy; Diachronic Adjustment Speed; Distributed Lags model; Monte Carlo Experiments. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E37 F17 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2009-03-19

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:crt:wpaper:0902

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