What Accounts for the Decline in Crime?

Ayse Imrohoroglu (), Antonio Merlo () and Peter Rupert ()

Working Papers from C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University

Abstract: In this paper we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the United States. We propose a dynamic equilibrium model which guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime. Our main findings can be summarized as follows. First, the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996. Second, the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability, the stronger economy, and the aging of the population. Third, the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible. Fourth, the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime. Overall, our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century.

Keywords: PROPERTY CRIME; INEQUALITY; DYNAMICS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: K42 D58 D99 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://econ.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/9188/RR00-11.PDF (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: What accounts for the decline in crime? (2000)
Journal Article: WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE DECLINE IN CRIME? (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cvs:starer:00-11

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10012

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University
Address: C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10012
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Anne Stubing ().