An Uncertainty-Driven Theory of the Productivity Slowdown: Manufacturing

Diego Comin ()

Working Papers from C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University

Abstract: This paper presents a theory of the productivity slowdown based on the effects that uncertainty has on the productivity of specialized capital. Uncertainty reduces the efficiency of inflexible capital and generates a slowdown. It also increases the demand for flexible capital which retains its productivity in the new volatile environment. The increase in the share of flexible capital explains the acceleration of the rate of productivity growth embodied in new capital observed by McHugh and Lane [1987]. This fact is difficult to explain by the theories that emphasize the cost of implementing the new technologies as the cause of the slowdown. The model also highlights the positive effect that uncertainty has on the speed of diffusion of technologies, and on the rate of technological progress. These relationships are successfully tested in manufacturing and are used to explain the rapid diffusion of computers and the spectacular TFP growth rate of the computer producing sectors.

Keywords: PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN; UNCERTAINTY; SPECIALIZED CAPITAL; FLEXIBILITY (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D2 D8 D9 O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://econ.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/9188/RR00-16.PDF (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cvs:starer:00-16

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10012

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University
Address: C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10012
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Anne Stubing ().