What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model

William D. Nordhaus () and David Popp

No 1117, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation, Yale University

Abstract: Governments must cope with the enormous uncertainties about both future climate change as well as the costs and benefits of slowing climate change. This study analyses the value of improved information about a variety of geophysical and economic processes. The value of information is estimated using the "PRICE model" which is a probabilistic extension of earlier models of the economics of global warming. The study uses five different approaches to estimating the value of information about all uncertain parameters and about individual parameters. It is estimated that the value of early information is between $1.5 and $2 billion for each year that resolution of uncertainty is moved toward the present. We estimate that the most important uncertain variables are the damages of climate change and the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Resolving the uncertainties about these two parameters would contribute 75 percent of the value of improved knowledge. Note: CFP 941.

Date: Written
View list of references

Published in The Energy Journal (1997), 18(1): 1-45

Downloads: (external link)
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cp/p09a/p0941.pdf (application/pdf)
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d11a/d1117.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model (1997)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1117

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
The price is None.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation, Yale University
Address: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Glena Ames ().