Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market

John Geanakoplos (), Michael Magill and Martine Quinzii ()
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John Geanakoplos: Cowles Fdn, Yale University, http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/faculty/geanakoplos.htm

No 1380R, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation, Yale University

Abstract: This paper was begun during a visit at the Cowles Foundation in Fall 2000 and revised during a visit in Fall 2002: Michael Magill and Martine Quinzii are grateful for the stimulating environment and the research support provided by the Cowles Foundation. We are also grateful to Bob Shiller for helpful discussions, and to participants at the Cowles Conference on Incomplete Markets at Yale University, the SITE Workshop at Stanford University, the Incomplete Markets Workshop at SUNY Stony Brook during the summer 2001, the Southwest Economic Conference at UCLA, and the Conference for the Advancement of Economic Theory at Rhodes in 2003 for helpful comments. Many thanks to Bill Brainard whose numerous insightful questions and comments greatly improved the final version of the paper. Unfortunately the authors are solely responsible for the remaining weaknesses.

Keywords: Demography; Price earnings ratio; Returns; Efficient markets; Baby-boom; Savings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E32 E43 E44 G12 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-08, Revised 2004-07
Note: CFP 1099.
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Published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2004), 1: 241-325

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Related works:
Working Paper: Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market (2002)
Journal Article: Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market (2004)
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