The Impact of Coalition Offensive Operations on the Iraqi Insurgency

Matthew A. Hanson () and Martin B. Schmidt ()

No 56, Working Papers from Department of Economics, College of William and Mary

Abstract: Coalition offensive operations in Iraq seek to disrupt insurgents and their networks, but may also act as a recruitment tool for the insurgency. We use data from Coalition press releases and casualty reports to assess the total impact of these operations. We find that two additional offensive operations come at a future cost of an additional Coalition soldier’s life. The evidence suggests that rather than diminishing the insurgents’ appetite to wage counterattacks, these operations may act as a recruitment tool for the insurgency. We further find that while the insurgents change their level of operations in response to the Coalition, the Coalition does not react to the insurgents.

Keywords: Proactive Countermeasures; Iraq War; Terrorism; Vector Autoregression; Granger Causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D74 H56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-09-05
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