What's good for Toyota…?

Ivo Arnold () and John Galakis
Additional contact information
John Galakis: Nyenrode Business Universiteit

No 06-12, Nyenrode Research Papers Series from Nyenrode Business Universiteit

Abstract: Since long the auto industry has been a valued source of leading business cycle indicators. While practitioners continue to use data on new car registrations to forecast economic activity, the predictive performance of auto industry related stock returns has deteriorated in the past decades. For the US this can be traced to the advent of Japanese manufacturers. The increased US market penetration by Japanese automakers coincides with a decline in the predictive ability of domestic auto returns. We are, however, able to recover a role for auto returns in business cycle forecasting by employing Japanese data. No such result can be found for European countries. We do conclude, however, that what’s good for Toyota, is good for the world economy

Keywords: Forecasting; Business Cycle; Financial Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-for, nep-his and nep-rmg
Date: 2006

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nyenrode.nl/facultyandresearch/nri/Docu ... g%20papers/06-12.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dgr:nijrep:2006-12

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Nyenrode Research Papers Series from Nyenrode Business Universiteit
Series data maintained by Ronald Piebes ().