The Economic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa

Théophile Thomas Azomahou

No 38, UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series from United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology

Abstract: In this paper, a simple general equilibrium model à la Solow is developed to capture the impact of AIDS on economic growth. To this end, a benchmark model due to Cuddington and Hancock (1994) is extended in various directions. In particular, the sharply declining life expectancy patterns are clearly rejected in the enlarged model through a generic Ben-Porath mechanism. AIDS-related health expenditures are incorporated as well. Using up-do-date optimal forecasting methods, the model applied to South Africa shows that while a relatively short term assessment might not reveal any dramatic AIDS growth effect, the medium/long run impact can be truly devastating. In particular, the heavy trends in mortality and life expectancy currently induced by AIDS are shown to be potentially at least twice more detrimen-tal for per capita economic growth in the period 2020-2030 compared to 2000-2010.

Keywords: Epidemics; Life Expectancy; Economic Growth; AIDS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 C62 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-dev, nep-dge and nep-hea
Date: 2008
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.merit.unu.edu/publications/wppdf/2008/wp2008-038.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dgr:unumer:2008038

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series from United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology
Series data maintained by Ad Notten ().