Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

Sanjeev Sridharan (), Suncica Vujic () and Siem Jan Koopman ()
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Sanjeev Sridharan: Westat, Rockville, USA
Suncica Vujic: Dept of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

No 03-040/4, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of- fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni- variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variabIe. Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a mul- tivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.

Keywords: ARIMA models; Intervention; Parole abolition; Regression models; Sentence reform; Structural time series models. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 K42 I38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: Written
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