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Trust in the central bank and inflation expectations

Dimitris Christelis (), Dimitris Georgarakos (), Tullio Jappelli () and Maarten van Rooij ()

DNB Working Papers from Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department

Abstract: Using micro data from the 2015 Dutch CentERpanel, we examine whether trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) influences individuals' expectations and uncertainty about future inflation, and also whether it anchors inflation expectations. We find that higher trust in the ECB lowers inflation expectations on average, and significantly reduces uncertainty about future inflation. Moreover, results from quantile regressions suggest that trusting the ECB increases (lowers) inflation expectations when the latter are below (above) the ECB's inflation target. These findings hold after controlling for people's knowledge about the objectives of the ECB. In addition, higher trust in the ECB raises expectations about GDP growth. The findings suggest that a central bank can influence the economy through people's expectations, even in times when conventional monetary policy tools likely have weak effects.

Keywords: inflation expectations; inflation uncertainty; Anchorin; Trust in the ECB; Subjective Expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 D81 E03 E40 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2016-12
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