Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes

Rolf Strauch (), Mark Hallerberg () and Juergen von Hagen ()
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Rolf Strauch: European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, D-60311 Frankfurt/Main, Germany, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

No 307, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and institutional factors can explain this pattern. Our analysis indicates that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes in the budgetary position are mainly affected by the cycle, the need of convergence before EMU and by electoral cycles.

Keywords: Fiscal forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Budget processes; Stability and Growth Pact. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-pbe
Date: 2004-02
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Related works:
Working Paper: Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes (2004)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040307

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