Explaining exchange rate dynamics - the uncovered equity return parity condition

Elizaveta Krylova (), Lorenzo Cappiello and Roberto A. De Santis ()
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Elizaveta Krylova: European Central Bank, Market Operations, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

No 529, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: By employing Lucas’ (1982) model, this study proposes an arbitrage relationship – the Uncovered Equity Return Parity (URP) condition – to explain the dynamics of exchange rates. When expected equity returns in a country/region are lower than expected equity returns in another country/region, the currency associated with the market offering lower returns is expected to appreciate. First, we test the URP assuming that investors are risk neutral and next we relax this hypothesis. The resulting risk premia are proxied by economic variables, which are related to the business cycle. We employ differentials in corporate earnings’ growth rates, short-term interest rate changes, annual inflation rates, and net equity flows. The URP explains a large fraction of the variability of some European currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar. When confronted with the naïve random walk model, the URP for the EUR/USD performs better in terms of forecasts for a set of alternative statistics.

Keywords: Foreign exchange markets; asset pricing; random walk; UIP; GMM. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G15 C22 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-fin, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-ifn
Date: 2005-09
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