Optimal monetary policy in an estimated DSGE for the euro area

Matthieu DARRACQ PARIES (), Stéphane Adjemian () and Stéphane Moyen ()

No 803, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine the main features of optimal monetary policy within a micro-founded macroeconometric framework. First, using Bayesian techniques, we estimate a medium scale closed economy DSGE for the euro area. Then, we study the properties of the Ramsey allocation through impulse response, variance decomposition and counterfactual analysis. In particular, we show that, controlling for the zero lower bound constraint, does not seem to limit the stabilization properties of optimal monetary policy. We also present simple monetary policy rules which can "approximate" and implement the Ramsey allocation reasonably well. Such optimal simple operational rules seem to react specifically to nominal wage inflation. Overall, the Ramsey policy together with its simple rule approximations seem to deliver consistent policy messages and may constitute some useful normative benchmarks within medium to large scale estimated DSGE framework. However, this normative analysis based on estimated models reinforces the need to improve the economic micro-foundation and the econometric identification of the structural disturbances. JEL Classification: E4, E5.

Keywords: DSGE models; Monetary policy; Bayesian estimation; Welfare calculations. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2007-08
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