Memories of high inflation

Michael Ehrmann () and Panagiota Tzamourani ()
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Panagiota Tzamourani: Bank of Greece, 21, E. Venizelos Avenue, GR-10250 Athens, Greece., http://eng.bankofgreece.gr/en/

No 1095, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This paper tests whether memories of high inflation affect agents’ preferences about the importance attached to price stability, using a large database covering over 52,000 survey responses from 23 countries over the years 1981-2000. It finds that memories of hyperinflation are there to last, whereas those of less drastic inflation experiences tend to erode after around 10 to 15 years. The recent decline in the importance attached to price stability does therefore most likely reflect mitigated inflation concerns in an environment of low and stable inflation, but also the consequences of fading memories of high inflation. The longer central banks have successfully delivered price stability, the more important it is for them to engage in a proactive communication, especially with the younger generations, about the merits of low and stable inflation. JEL Classification: D10, E31, E52.

Keywords: Inflation aversion; inflation memories; hyperinflation; World Values Survey; inflation targeting. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2009-09
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