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1255: Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons

Fabio Fornari and Wolfgang Lemke

1254: Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model

Sandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot, Ricardo Mestre and João Sousa

1253: Monetary policy in exceptional times

Michele Lenza, Huw Pill and Lucrezia Reichlin

1252: Interbank market integration, loan rates, and firm leverage

Steven Ongena and Alexander Popov

1251: Macroeconomic propagation under different regulatory regimes: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model for the euro area

Matthieu DARRACQ PARIES, Christoffer Kok Sørensen and Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela

1250: Optimal monetary policy with state-dependent pricing

Anton Nakov and Carlos Thomas

1249: Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals

Luca Gattini and Paul Hiebert

1248: Bank risk-taking, securitization, supervision and low interest rates: Evidence from the euro area and the U.S. lending standards

Angela Maddaloni and Jose-Luis Peydro

1247: The Euro overnight interbank market and ECB's liquidity management policy during tranquil and turbulent times

Nuno Cassola and Michael Huetl

1246: Predicting recessions and recoveries in real time: The euro area-wide leading indicator (ALI)

Gabe de Bondt and Elke Hahn

1245: Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil

Jean-Charles Bricongne, Lionel Fontagné, Guillaume Gaulier, Daria Taglioni and Vincent Vicard

1244: Trade with central and eastern Europe: is it really a threat to wages in the west?

Éva Katalin Polgár and Julia Wörz

1243: Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change

Sophocles N. Brissimis, George Hondroyiannis, Christos Papazoglou, Nicholas T. Tsaveas and Melina Vasardani

1242: Changes in the Czech wage structure: Does immigration matter?

Kamil Dybczak and Kamil Galuscak

1241: Major public debt reductions: Lessons from the past, lessons for the future

Christiane Nickel, Philipp Rother and Lilli Zimmermann

1240: Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China

Tuuli Koivu

1239: Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model

Stephane Dees, M Hashem Pesaran, L. Vanessa Smith and Ron P. Smith

1238: Household money holdings in the euro area: An explorative investigation

Franz Seitz and Julian von Landesberger

1237: The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area

Cristina Checherita Westphal and Philipp Rother

1236: Is the new keynesian IS curve structural?

Livio Stracca

1235: A note on identification patterns in DSGE models

Michal Andrle

1234: Imposing parsimony in cross-country growth regressions

Marek Jarociński

1233: Bank heterogeneity and monetary policy transmission

Sophocles N. Brissimis and Manthos D. Delis

1232: The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices

Alessio Anzuini, Marco Jacopo Lombardi and Patrizio Pagano

1231: Real convergence and its illusions

Marcin Kolasa

1230: Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics

Boris Hofmann, Gert Peersman and Roland Straub

1229: Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luca Onorante and Paolo Paesani

1228: Trusting the bankers: a new look at the credit channel of monetary policy

Matteo Ciccarelli, Angela Maddaloni and Jose-Luis Peydro

1227: Exports and sectoral financial dependence: evidence on French firms during the great global crisis

Jean-Charles Bricongne, Lionel Fontagné, Guillaume Gaulier, Daria Taglioni and Vincent Vicard

1226: Chronicle of currency collapses: re-examining the effects on output

Matthieu Bussiere, Sweta C. Saxena and Camilo Ernesto Tovar

1225: Price and wage formation in Portugal

Carlos Robalo Marques, Fernando Martins and Pedro Portugal

1224: Wages, labor or prices: how do firms react to shocks?

Emmanuel Dhyne and Martine Druant

1223: The dark side of bank wholesale funding

Rocco R Huang and Lev Ratnovski

1222: Monetary policy and capital regulation in the US and Europe

Ethan Cohen-Cole and Jonathan Morse

1221: Financial regulation, financial globalization and the synchronization of economic activity

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Elias Papaioannou and Jose-Luis Peydro

1220: The gains from early intervention in Europe: Fiscal surveillance and fiscal planning using cash data

Andrew J Hughes Hallett, Moritz Kuhn and Thomas Warmedinger

1219: Transmission of government spending shocks in the euro area: Time variation and driving forces

Markus Kirchner, Jacopo Cimadomo and Sebastian Hauptmeier

1218: Sectoral money demand and the great disinflation in the US

Alessandro Calza and Andrea Zaghini

1217: Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?

Antonio Afonso, Hans Peter Grüner and Christina Kolerus

1216: What lies beneath the euro's effect on financial integration? Currency risk, legal harmonization, or trade?

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Elias Papaioannou and Jose-Luis Peydro

1215: Formal education, mismatch and wages after transition: Assessing the impact of unobserved heterogeneity using matching estimators

Ana Lamo and Julian Messina

1214: Detecting and interpreting financial stress in the euro area

Marianna Blix Grimaldi

1213: The incidence of nominal and real wage rigidity: an individual-based sectoral approach

Julian Messina, Philip Du Caju, Cláudia Filipa Duarte, Niels Lynggård Hansen and Mario Izquierdo

1212: Multimarket trading and the cost of debt: evidence from global bonds

Lubomir Petrasek

1211: Efficiency and risk in european banking

Franco Fiordelisi, David Marques-Ibanez and Philip Molyneux

1210: Towards a robust monetary policy rule for the euro area

Tobias S. Blattner and Emil Margaritov

1209: Epstein-Zin preferences and their use in macro-finance models: implications for optimal monetary policy

Matthieu DARRACQ PARIES and Alexis Loublier

1208: Reverse causality in global current accounts

Gunther Schnabl and Stephan Freitag

1207: Money growth and inflation: a regime switching approach

Gianni Amisano and Gabriel Fagan

1206: Relative house price dynamics across euro area and US cities: convergence or divergence?

Paul Hiebert and Moreno Roma