Abstract:
We study the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns using an intertemporal CAPM with three factors; innovations in future excess bond returns, future real interest rates and future expected inflation. Our test assets are a broad range of bond market index portfolios of different default categories. We find, using the Fama MacBeth cross-sectional method, that innovations in future expected real interest ratesand future expected inflation explain the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns. Our model provides an alternative to ad hoc risk factors used, for example, in evaluating the performance of bond mutual funds.