Forecasting Cross-Section Stock Returns using The Present Value Model

George Bulkley () and Richard Holt

ESE Discussion Papers from Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh

Abstract: We contribute to the debate over whether forecastable stock returns reflect an unexploited profit opportunity or rationally reflect risk differentials. We test whether agents could earn excess returns by selecting stocks which have a low market price compared to an estimate of the fundamental value obtained from the present value model. The criterion for stock picking is one which could actually have been implemented by agents in real time. We show that statistically significant, and quantitatively substantial, excess returns are delivered by portfolios of stocks which are cheap relative to our estimate of fundamental value. There is no evidence that the under priced stocks are relatively risky and hence excess returns cannot easily be interpreted as an equilibrium compensation for risk.

Keywords: Excess returns; Trading rule; Efficient markets; Present value model; Stock prices. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-rmg
Date: 2007-08-03
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:edn:esedps:163

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