Turnout Intention and Social Networks

Constanza Fosco (), Annick Laruelle and Angel Sanches ()
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Angel Sanches: Universidad Carlos III Madrid

IKERLANAK from Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I

Abstract: How can networking affect the turnout in an electrion? We present a simple model to explain turnout as a result of a dynamic process of formation of the intention to vote within Erdös-Renyi random networks. Citizens have fixed preferences for one of two parties and are embedded in a given social network. They decide whether or not to vote on the basis of the arritude of their immediate contacts. They may simply follow the behavior of the majority (followers) or make an adaptative local calculus of voting (Downsian behavior). So they either have the intention of voting when the majority of their social neighborhood that elections are "close". We study the long run average turnout, interpreted as the actual turnout observed in an lection. Depending on the combination of values of the two key parameters, the average connectivity and the probability of behaving as a follower or in a Downsian fashion, the system exhibits monostability (zero turnout), bistability (zero, moderate and high turnout). This means, in partituclar, that for a wide range of values ob both parameters, we obtain realistic turnout rates, i.e. between 50% and 90%.

Keywords: Turnout; Social Networks; Adaptative Behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-09-03

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