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Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone

Tomas Havranek ()

No 2009/20, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: This paper presents an updated meta-analysis of the effect of currency unions on trade, focusing on the Euro area. Using meta-regression methods such as funnel asymmetry test, evidence for strong publication bias is found. The estimated underlying effect for non-Euro studies reaches about 50%. However, the Euro's trade promoting effect corrected for publication bias is insignificant. The Rose effect literature shows signs of the economics research cycle: reported t-statistic is a quadratic function of publication year. Explanatory meta-regression (robust fixed effects and random effects) suggests that some authors produce predictable results. Interestingly, proxies for authors' IT skills were also found significant.

Keywords: Rose effect; Trade; Currency union; Euro; Meta-analysis; Publication bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C42 F15 F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-int and nep-mon
Date: 2009-08, Revised 2009-08
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_20

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