Oil Shocks and the Business Cycle in Europe

Baltasar Manzano (), Carlos de Miguel and José Mª Martín Moreno

No 215, Studies on the Spanish Economy from FEDEA

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on the business cycle of the EU-15 countries using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model for a small open economy in which oil is included as an imported productive input. The results show that oil shocks can account for a significant percentage of GDP fluctuations in many of those countries. Furthermore, we show that the increases in the relative price of oil had a negative effect on welfare, particularly in southern European countries, which are historically associated with a lax monetary policy during oil crisis.

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