Can a Habit Formation Model really explain the forward premium anomaly?

Carlos Eugênio da Costa and Jivago X. Vasconcelos

No 692, Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) from Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil)

Abstract: Verdelhan (2009) shows that if one is to explain the foreign exchange forwardpremium behavior using Campbell and Cochrane (1999)'s habit formation modelone must specify it in such a way to generate pro-cyclical short term risk free rates.At the calibration procedure, we show that this is only possible in Campbell andCochrane's framework under implausible parameters speci cations given that theprice-consumption ratio diverges in almost all parameters sets. We, then, adoptVerdelhan's shortcut of xing the sensivity function (st) at its steady state level toattain a nite value for the price-consumption ratio and release it in the simulationstage to ensure pro-cyclical risk free rates. Beyond the potential inconsistenciesthat such procedure may generate, as suggested by Wachter (2006), with pro-cyclical risk free rates the model generates a downward sloped real yield curve,which is at odds with the data.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn and nep-upt
Date: 2009-05-12

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