EconPapers has moved to http://EconPapers.repec.org! Please update your bookmarks.
Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997
Michael David Bordo ()
Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Using the yield curve helps forecast real growth over the period 1875 to 1997. Using both the level and slope of the curve improves forecasts more than using either variable alone. Forecast performance changes over time and depends somewhat on whether recursive or rolling out of sample regressions are used.
Keywords: Interest rates; Gross national product (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link) http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Workpaper/2006/wp0611.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works: Journal Article: Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997 (2008) This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0611
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact information at EDIRC. Series data maintained by Diane Rosenberger ().