Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models

Andrew Theo Levin (), Alexei Onatski (), John C. Williams () and Noah Williams ()

No 2005-15, Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data and then determine the policy under commitment that maximizes household welfare. We find that the performance of the optimal policy is closely matched by a simple operational rule that focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably robust to uncertainty about the model parameters and to various assumptions regarding the nature and incidence of the innovations. However, the characteristics of optimal policy are very sensitive to the specification of the wage contracting mechanism, thereby highlighting the importance of additional research regarding the structure of labor markets and wage determination.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Macroeconomics; Microeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac, nep-mic and nep-mon
Date: 2005
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Related works:
Chapter: Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models (2006)
Working Paper: Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models (2005)
Working Paper: Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models (2005)
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