Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling

Neil R. Ericsson ()

No 697, International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade balance, U.K. inflation and real national income, and the U.S./U.K. exchange rate help clarify the issues involved.

Keywords: Econometric models; Forecasting; Econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-ifn
Date: 2001
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