Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis

Todd Clark and Kenneth D. West ()

No RWP 04-03, Research Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Abstract: We consider using out of sample mean squared prediction errors (MSPEs) to evaluate the null that a given series follows a zero mean martingale difference against the alternative that it is linearly predictable. Under the null of zero predictability, the population MSPE of the null “no change” model equals that of the linear alternative. We show analytically and via simulations that despite this equality, the alternative model’s sample MSPE is expected to be greater than the null’s. We propose and evaluate an asymptotically normal test that properly accounts for the upward shift of the sample MSPE of the alternative model. Our simulations indicate that our proposed procedure works well.

Keywords: Foreign; exchange; rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ets
Date: 2004
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Journal Article: Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis (2006)
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