Price discovery in the U.S. treasury market

Bruce Mizrach () and Christopher Neely ()

No 2005-070, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: This paper is the first to characterize the tatonnement of high-frequency returns from U.S. Treasury spot and futures markets. In particular, we highlight the previously neglected role of the futures markets in price discovery. The lower-bound estimate of bivariate information shares for 30-year Treasury futures typically exceeds 50% from 1998 on. Standard liquidity measures, including the proportion of trades and relative bid-ask spreads, explain daily information shares. These conclusions still hold when one controls for days of macroeconomic announcements. Finally, a 5-dimensional cointegrated system explains a high percentage of Treasury returns. In that system, the 30-year futures contract and the 5-year spot market dominate price discovery. ; Earlier title: The microstructure of bond market tatonnement

Keywords: Bond; market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin and nep-fmk
Date: 2006
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