Social learning and monetary policy rules

Jasmina Arifovic (), James Bullard () and Olena Kostyshyna

No 2007-007, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: We analyze the effects of social learning in a widely-studied monetary policy context. Social learning might be viewed as more descriptive of actual learning behavior in complex market economies. Ideas about how best to forecast the economy's state vector are initially heterogeneous. Agents can copy better forecasting techniques and discard those techniques which are less successful. We seek to understand whether the economy will converge to a rational expectations equilibrium under this more realistic learning dynamic. A key result from the literature in the version of the model we study is that the Taylor Principle governs both the uniqueness and the expectational stability of the rational expectations equilibrium when all agents learn homogeneously using recursive algorithms. We find that the Taylor Principle is not necessary for convergence in a social learning context. We also contribute to the use of genetic algorithm learning in stochastic environments.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cmp, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: Written 2007
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