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Working Papers
from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contact information at EDIRC . Series data maintained by Diane Rosenberger ().
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2003-022: Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox
Daniel Thornton
2003-021: The empirical failure of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of bond yields
Lucio Sarno , Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente
2003-020: International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation
Amit Kara and Edward Nelson
2003-019: Money and the transmission mechanism in the optimizing IS-LM specification
Edward Nelson
2003-018: Implied volatility from options on gold futures: do statistical forecasts add value or simply paint the lilly?
Christopher Neely
2003-017: A leisurely reading of the life-cycle consumption data
James Bullard and James Allen Feigenbaum
2003-016: On the information content of asymmetric FOMC policy statements: evidence from a Taylor-rule perspective
Michael Pakko
2003-015: Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching
Chang-Jin Kim , Jeremy Piger and Richard Startz
2003-014: Gold, fiat money and price stability
Michael David Bordo , Robert Dittmar and William Thomas Gavin
2003-013: Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?
James Bullard and Stefano Eusepi
2003-012: On the risk-return relation in international stock markets
Hui Guo
2003-011: Business cycle phases in U.S. states
Michael T. Owyang , Jeremy Piger and Howard J. Wall
2003-010: The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks
Neville Francis , Michael T. Owyang and Athena T. Theodorou
2003-009: Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications
Abbigail Chiodo , Massimo Guidolin , Michael T. Owyang and Makoto Shimoji
2003-008: Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy
Michael T. Owyang and Howard J. Wall
2003-007: On the real-time forecasting ability of the consumption-wealth ratio
Hui Guo
2003-006: Some tables of historical U.S. currency and monetary aggregates data
Richard G. Anderson
2003-005: Political allocation of U.S. agriculture disaster payments in the 1990s
Thomas Garrett , Thomas L. Marsh and Maria I. Marshall
2003-004: Pass-through estimates and the choice of an exchange rate index
Patricia Pollard and Cletus C. Coughlin
2003-003: Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
Thomas Garrett , Ruben Hernandez-Murillo and Michael T. Owyang
2003-002: FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?
William Thomas Gavin
2003-001: Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle
Neville Francis and Michael T. Owyang
2002-032: Entrepreneurship and the deregulation of banking: how strong is the evidence?
Howard J. Wall
2002-031: Patent licensing revisited: heterogeneous firms and product differentiation
Ruben Hernandez-Murillo and Gerard Llobet
2002-030: Substitution elasticities and investment dynamics in two country business cycle models
Michael Pakko
2002-029: What's unique about the federal funds rate? evidence from a spectral perspective
Lucio Sarno , Daniel Thornton and Yi Wen
2002-028: Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?
Daniel Thornton
2002-027: Mergers and acquisitions in Germany
Frank A. Schmid and Mark Wahrenburg
2002-026: Cracks in the facade: American economic and financial structures after the boom
William Robert Emmons and Frank A. Schmid
2002-025: Business cycle detrending of macroeconomic data via a latent business cycle index
Michael J. Dueker and Charles R. Nelson
2002-024: Aggregated vs. disaggregated data in regression analysis: implications for inference
Thomas Garrett
2002-023: Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?
Andrew Theo Levin and Jeremy Piger
2002-022: Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure
Leora Friedberg and Michael T. Owyang
2002-021: Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence
Michael T. Owyang and Abbigail Chiodo
2002-020: New evidence on the Fed's productivity in providing payments services
R. Alton Gilbert , David Wheelock and Paul W. Wilson
2002-019: Entrepreneurship and the policy environment
Yannis Georgellis and Howard J. Wall
2002-018: Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR
Michael T. Owyang
2002-017: Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? and does it matter?
Christopher Neely
2002-016: Directly measuring early exercise premiums using American and European S&P 500 index options
Michael J. Dueker and Thomas W. Miller
2002-015: Tax competition and tax harmonization with evasion
Nestor Gandelman and Ruben Hernandez-Murillo
2002-014: Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions
Chang-Jin Kim , James Morley and Jeremy Piger
2002-013: Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns
Hui Guo
2002-012: The political economy of FEMA disaster payments
Thomas Garrett and Russell S. Sobel
2002-011: State lottery revenue: the importance of game characteristics
Thomas Garrett and Russell S. Sobel
2002-010: Inefficient education spending in public school districts: a case for consolidation
Thomas Garrett and Marvin E. Dodson
2002-009: Aviation security and terrorism: a review of the economic issues
Cletus C. Coughlin , Jeffrey P. Cohen and Sarosh R. Khan
2002-008: On the out-of-sample predictability of stock market returns
Hui Guo
2002-007: How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?
Christopher Neely and Lucio Sarno
2002-006: Intermediaries and payments instruments
James Bullard and Bruce D. Smith
2002-005: Federal funds rate prediction
Lucio Sarno , Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente