Abstract:
The paper puts forward the hypothesis that transitory effects of trade liberalization on wage inequality can differ from the long-run outcome based on the HOS theory. In cases where HOS theory predicts a decline in wage inequality in the long run, a temporary rise can occur due to (i) asymmetries in the speed of contraction in the import sector and expansion in other sectors, and (ii) capital-skill complementarity in production. Asymmetric contraction and expansion causes transitory capital accumulation that boosts the relative and the real wage of the skilled labor due to capital-skill complementarity. Although long-run HOS fundamentals are, therefore, dominated in short run by the transient effects arising due to capital-skill complementarity, the observed rise in wage inequality is, nevertheless, consistent with the HOS theory appropriately extended to a dynamic setting.