Energy Consumption, Survey Data and the Prediction of Industrial Production in Italy

D.J. Marchetti and G. Parigi

Working Papers from Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi

Abstract: We investigate the prediction of Italian industrial production. We first specify a model based on electricity consumption; we show that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model a la Terasvirta, with no gains in predictive power, though. We also analyze the performance of models based on data of different business surveys.

Keywords: ITALY; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION; ENERGY (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D24 L11 L9 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
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