EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Population Aging and Economic Growth

David Bloom (), David Canning () and Günther Fink
Additional contact information
David Bloom: Harvard School of Public Health

PGDA Working Papers from Program on the Global Demography of Aging

Abstract: Between 2000 and 2050, the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in every country in the world; the same is true for the 80+ population in all but one country (Mali). Worldwide, the largest absolute increases are yet to come. Although labor force participation rates are projected to decline from 2000 to 2040 in most countries, due mainly to changes in their age distributions, labor-force-to-population ratios will actually increase in most countries. This is because low fertility will cause lower youth dependency that is more than enough to offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages at which labor force participation is lower. The increase in labor-force-to-population ratios will be further magnified by increases in age-specific rates of female labor force participation associated with fertility declines. These factors suggest that economic growth will continue apace, notwithstanding the phenomenon of population aging. For the OECD countries, the declines projected to occur in both labor force participation and labor-force-to-population ratios suggest modest declines in the pace of economic growth. But even these effects can be mitigated by behavioral responses to population aging – in the form of higher savings for retirement, greater labor force participation, and increased immigration from labor-surplus to labor-deficit countries. Countries that can facilitate such changes may be able to limit the adverse consequences of population aging. When seen through the lens of several mitigating considerations, there is reason to think that population aging in developed countries may have less effect than some have predicted. In addition, policy responses related to retirement incentives, pension funding methods, investments in health care of the elderly, and immigration can further ameliorate the effect of population aging on economic growth.

Keywords: demography; growth; aging; population; economy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
Date: 2008-04
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (24) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2008/PGDA_WP_31.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gdm:wpaper:3108

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in PGDA Working Papers from Program on the Global Demography of Aging
Series data maintained by Günther Fink ().

 
Page updated 2014-11-21
Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:3108