The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe
David Bloom (),
David Canning (),
Günther Fink and
Jocelyn Finlay ()
Additional contact information
David Bloom: Harvard School of Public Health
PGDA Working Papers from Program on the Global Demography of Aging
We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the high cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large immigration inflows. To illustrate these effects we construct a population accounting model and simulate steady-state outcomes. Regression analysis indicates the differing marginal effects of long-term fertility change in Europe versus the rest of the world.
Keywords: demography; growth; age structure; population; economy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-eec
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gdm:wpaper:3208
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in PGDA Working Papers from Program on the Global Demography of Aging
Series data maintained by Günther Fink ().