EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

External Balances, Trade and Financial Conditions

Martin Evans ()

No gueconwpa~15-15-08, Working Papers from Georgetown University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper examines the persistent deterioration in the international external position of the U.S. over the past 60 years. I develop a model without Ponzi schemes and arbitrage opportunities that accounts for both the secular rise and the cyclical variations in the U.S. international debt position. The model estimates quantify the role played by financial and real factors in driving these dynamics, and their impact on the steady state debt position. I find that financial factors raise the steady state debt level by three percent of GDP, and account for 80 percent the cyclical variations. In contrast, real factors associated with trade flows are the dominant drivers of the secular rise in the debt position. I argue that these empirical findings are at odds with recent models of global imbalances that focus on demographics and asymmetric financial development. They also represent a substantial challenge to the view that the U.S. external position is on a sustainable path.

Keywords: Global Imbalances; External Positions; Current Accounts; Trade Flows; Valuation Effects; Stochastic Discount Factors; International Asset Pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 F32 F34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-opm
Date: 2015-08-19
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/evansm1/wpapers_files/nfl_d1.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
None

Related works:
Journal Article: External balances, trade and financial conditions (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: External Balances, Trade and Financial Conditions (2015) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~15-15-08

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Roger Lagunoff Professor of Economics Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
http://econ.georgetown.edu/

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Georgetown University, Department of Economics Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036.
Series data maintained by Marcia Suss ().

 
Page updated 2017-07-25
Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~15-15-08