Working Papers

from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting
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2013-004: Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests

Xuguang Sheng and Jingyun Yang

2013-003: Information Environment and The Cost of Capital

Orie Barron, Xuguang Sheng and Maya Thevenot

2013-002: Inflation Persistence: Revisited

Edward N. Gamber, Jeffrey P. Liebner and Julie K. Smith

2013-001: Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect future volatility? Evidence from the ECB Surveys

Tarek Atallah, Fred Joutz and Axel Pierru

2012-006: Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting

Neil R. Ericsson and Erica L. Reisman

2012-005: The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium?

Fakhri Javanshir Hasanov

2012-004: A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

Tara M. Sinclair, Herman O. Stekler and Warren Carnow

2012-003: Modelling and Forecasting Residential Electricity Consumption in the U.S. Mountain Region

Jason B. Jorgensen and Fred Joutz

2012-002: EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS

Tara M. Sinclair, Herman O. Stekler and Warren Carnow

2012-001: Forecasting Data Vintages

Tara M. Sinclair

2011-006: A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach

Yueqing Jia

2011-005: Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession

Herman O. Stekler and Raj Talwar

2011-004: The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession

Kathryn Lundquist and Herman O. Stekler

2011-003: Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games

Herman O. Stekler and Andrew Klein

2011-002: Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt

Andrew B. Martinez

2011-001: Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates

Tara M. Sinclair and Herman O. Stekler

2010-004: Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment

William D. Larson

2010-003: Forecasting the Intermittent Demand for Slow-Moving Items

Ralph David Snyder, Keith Ord and Adrian Beaumont

2010-002: Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts

Ullrich Heilemann and Herman O. Stekler

2010-001: Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved?

Ullrich Heilemann and Herman O. Stekler

2009-004: Transparency, Performance, and Agency Budgets: A Rational Expectations Modeling Approach

Rosen Valchev and Antony Davies

2009-003: Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game

Bryan Leslie Boulier, Herman O. Stekler, Jason Coburn and Timothy Rankins

2009-002: Issues in Sports Forecasting

Herman O. Stekler, David Sendor and Richard Verlander

2009-001: Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?

Tara M. Sinclair, Fred Joutz and Herman O. Stekler

2008-011: A Likelihood Ratio Test of Stationarity Based on a Correlated Unobserved Components Model

James Morley, Irina Panovska and Tara M. Sinclair

2008-010: Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts

Tara M. Sinclair, Fred Joutz and Herman O. Stekler

2008-009: What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?

Herman O. Stekler

2008-008: An Exploration of Regression-Based Data Mining Techniques Using Super Computation

Antony Davies

2008-007: Evaluating Consensus Forecasts

Herman O. Stekler

2008-006: Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions

ChiUng Song, Bryan Leslie Boulier and Herman O. Stekler

2008-005: Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example

Herman O. Stekler and Kazuta Sakamoto

2008-004: Monitoring Processes with Changing Variances

Keith Ord

2008-003: Exponential smoothing and non-negative data

Muhammad Akram, Rob J Hyndman and Keith Ord

2008-002: Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation

Tara M. Sinclair, Gamber Edward N., Herman O. Stekler and Reid Elizabeth

2008-001: Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation

Edward N. Gamber, Julie K. Smith and Matthew Weiss

2007-002: Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?

Edward N. Gamber and Julie K. Smith

2007-001: Sports Forecasting

Herman O. Stekler