Fiscal Storms: Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

Joshua Aizenman (), Michael Hutchison and Ilan Noy ()
Additional contact information
Michael Hutchison: Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz

No 200810, Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics

Abstract: We examine the inflation targeting (IT) experiences of emerging market economies, focusing especially on the roles of the real exchange rate and the distinction between commodity and non-commodity exporting nations. In the context of a simple empirical model, estimated with panel data for 17 emerging markets using both IT and non-IT observations, we find a significant and stable response running from inflation to policy interest rates in emerging markets that are following publically announced IT policies. By contrast, central banks respond much less to inflation in non-IT regimes. IT emerging markets follow a “mixed IT strategy” whereby both inflation and real exchange rates are important determinants of policy interest rates. The response to real exchange rates is much stronger in non-IT countries, however, suggesting that policymakers are more constrained in the IT regime—they are attempting to simultaneously target both inflation and real exchange rates and these objectives are not always consistent. We also find that the response to real exchange rates is strongest in those countries following IT policies that are relatively intensive in exporting basic commodities. We present a simple model that explains this empirical result.

Keywords: Inflation targeting; real exchange rate; commodity exporters; emerging markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 F3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ifn, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2008-12-01
View list of references

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_08-10.pdf First version, 2008 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hai:wpaper:200810

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.economics ... s/workingpapers.html

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Web Technician ().