A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels

Kurt Brännäs (), Jörgen Hellström () and Jonas Nordström ()
Additional contact information
Jörgen Hellström: Department of Economics, Umeå University, Postal: S 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Jonas Nordström: Department of Economics, Umeå University, Postal: S 901 87 Umeå, Sweden

No 503, Umeå Economic Studies from Umeå University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.

Keywords: Integer-valued; time series; estimation; tourism; demand analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C13 C22 C25 C51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-ind
Date: 1999-04-14

Published in International Journal of Forecasting , 2002, pages 19-30.

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Journal Article: A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels (2002)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:umnees:0503

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Umeå Economic Studies from Umeå University, Department of Economics
Address: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Kjell-Göran Holmberg ().