The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence
Meredith Beechey () and
Pär Österholm ()
No 2007:18, Working Paper Series from Uppsala University, Department of Economics
This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws implications about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy preferences. Standard models of central bank optimization predict that the central bank's preference for output stability is a determinant of inflation persistence. Hence, time variation of that preference should be reflected in changes in inflation persistence. We estimate an ARMA(1,q) model with a time-varying autore- gressive parameter for monthly U.S. inflation data from 1955 to 2006.The coefficients provide an estimate of the inflation target and the path of inflation persistence. The estimated inflation target over the sample is approximately 2.8 percent and we find that inflation persistence declined substantially during Volcker and Greenspan's tenures to a level significantly less than one and significantly below that of the 1970s and early 1980s.
Keywords: Monetary policy; Central bank preferences; Inflation persistence; Time-varying parameters; Kalman filter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (11) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence (2012)
Working Paper: The rise and fall of U.S. inflation persistence (2007)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2007_018
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Paper Series from Uppsala University, Department of Economics
Address: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Katarina Grönvall ().