SMALL OPEN ECONOMY MODEL WITH DOMESTIC RESOURCE SHOCKS: MONETARY UNION VS. FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE

Tor Einarsson

Economics from Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland

Abstract: This paper developes a small open economy model in which domestic resource shocks play a vital role in driving the dynamics of the major macroeconomic aggregates. House- holds rent capital and labour to rms and have access to an international bond market. The model is calibrated to recent Icelandic data and simulated under two alternative exchange rate regimes: oating rates, and monetary union membership. It is found that by entering a larger currency area, the volatility of the real exchange rate, real wages and consumption are sharply reduced, but output and employment are seen to be more volatile. Smoother consumption renders monetary union marginally Pareto superior to oating. Under mon- etary union and low ination, slight nominal wage reductions may be required at times to absorb adverse resource shocks. [JEL Codes: E32, E42, F31, F41. Key words: domestic resource shocks, exchange rate regime, stabilization, welfare costs.]

Date: 2002-11

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