Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries

Michael John Artis (), Massimiliano Marcellino and Tommaso Proietti ()

No 261, Working Papers from IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University

Abstract: We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the accession countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of accession countries, which turns out to be in general lower than that between the existing EU countries (the Baltic countries constitute an exception). With respect to the Eurozone, the indications of synchronization are also generally low and lower relative to the position obtaining for countries taking part in previous enlargements (with the exceptions of Poland, Slovenia and Hungary). In the light of the optimal currency area literature, these results cast doubts on the usefulness of adopting the euro in the near future for most accession countries, though other criteria such as the extent of trade and the gains in credibility may point in a different direction.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-ifn and nep-tra
Date: 2004
View list of references

Downloads: (external link)
ftp://ftp.igier.uni-bocconi.it/wp/2004/261.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries (2004)
Working Paper: Characterizing the Business Cycle for Accession Countries (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:igi:igierp:261

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/en/papers/index.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University
Address: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy)
Series data maintained by Melissa Fiorucci ().