The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

Martin Wagner and Jaroslava Hlouskova
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Jaroslava Hlouskova: Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies

No 20, Transition Economics Series from Institute for Advanced Studies

Abstract: The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. The growth prospects of these economies cannot be directly assessed, as the economic growth process in the transition countries is shown to not yet be described adequately by neoclassical growth theory. Thus, an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience on 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analyzed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

Keywords: Transition economies; Growth and convergence; EU accession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F02 F43 O11 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-04
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http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/tec/te-20.pdf First version, 2001 (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects (2002)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ihs:ihstep:20

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