Commodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence: What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe?

Edda Zoli

No 09/41, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation, but the inflation response is asymmetric for positive and negative shocks. Cyclical fluctuations explain a relative small share of inflation variability, and the inflation response is asymmetric during upturns and downturns. Price convergence is estimated to add nearly 3 percentage points to headline inflation, for the average country whose price level is about 50 percent relative to the EU-15 average.

Keywords: Commodity prices; Emerging markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Inflation; Economic models; Time series; Cross country analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2009-03-17
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